Cheltenham

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Timbo287
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Cheltenham

Post by Timbo287 »

With the festival just around the corner. Any racing fans on here?

What's your best bet of the festival? Mine is silviniaco conti for the gold cup. Was travelling well when falling last year, with more experience he should have no problem this year


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Smith2
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Re: Cheltenham

Post by Smith2 »

Whatever Venetia Williams ends up running in the Byrne Group Plate.

Last year I had £44 going onto the more fancied of her two in the race, Kapga de Cerisy. It was pulled up, but fortunately I had a fiver each way on the other one, Carrickboy. Which won at 50/1.
Timbo287
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Re: Cheltenham

Post by Timbo287 »

My problem with Venetia Williams' horses is that I always choose the wrong one I can never seem to find her winners. Lol

I'm involved with Un de Sceaux for the champion hurdle I think Mullins has a trick up his sleeve with this one
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Smith2
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Re: Cheltenham

Post by Smith2 »

And it's starting today!

So here are some initial thoughts on today's racing:

Supreme Novices: dunno. Not much value in anything plausible. Some shrewd types have tipped Un Ace, and sometimes I follow people who know more than I do when they tip big-priced outsiders - they might sneak a place, and sometimes they win - but I really don't get this one. Mick Channon's jumpers have done me favours by placing before, but Sgt Reckless is the wrong age. Might just watch.

Arkle: Brick Red, because it's 50/1 and there are only nine runners. Had I had the guts to back Mon Mome in the Gold Cup in 2010 for similar reasons, I would have been rewarded with a nice e/w dividend.

3 mile handicap chase: a nightmare for trend followers. The horses I like are carrying too much weight - 13 out of the last 14 winners carried less than 10 stone 12. Trainers I follow have a poor record in this race. Wrong Turn? Maybe, but I hate backing Irish horses that are having their first run in England, at not much of a price. Davy Russell is an odd booking for Sue Smith on Vintage Star, and I remember that he was an odd booking for Ferdy Murphy when he won on a 50/1 shot, but too much weight, perhaps. Shrewdsters have gone for Tour Des Champs and Solix, so maybe I should blindly follow. Or sit this one out.

Champion Hurdle: I'd like to see Hurricane Fly win, but I'm not going to back him. The shrewdsters are going for Ptit Zig, which at 50/1 is worth including in an e/w Lucky 15 or the like.

David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle: not touching it. Hope Quevega wins again. [Lights pipe]

Listed Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase: There's something about words like 'amateur', 'novice' and 'chase' in close proximity that makes me want to sit back and watch this one, perhaps whilst smoking a bowl of Amsterdam's finest.

2 mile 4 furlong handicap chase: oh, is it time to bet again? Persian Snow looks overpriced at 25/1; William Hill are as low as 14/1. Or back Venetia Williams blind, as she had the fourth in this race last year, and Gardefort is carrying bottom weight. The booking of Paul Carberry for King Vuvuzela also catches the eye.
Steverfc1872
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Re: Cheltenham

Post by Steverfc1872 »

William hill are offering hurricane fly at 6/1 ten pound maximum bet to anyone who bets online,I've got my tenner on co me on the fly :mrgreen:
Alo
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Re: Cheltenham

Post by Alo »

Just won first and third race :mrgreen:
gettingrimey
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Re: Cheltenham

Post by gettingrimey »

Just like to say as someone who lives in Cheltenham, the racing is a bloody pain, but really amusing. There is nothing quite like seeing someone so pissed that their trousers fall down at 9 in the morning :D
I be chillin on the beach in the South of Venice
Or merking the President live on Channel 7
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Spaldwickapeface
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Re: Cheltenham

Post by Spaldwickapeface »

£210 up on my £40 investment so far, need a big day tomorrow. Then I'm off to the corse for gold cup day :-)
I like bananas, monkey nuts and grapes. That's why they call me Sam of the apes
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Smith2
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Re: Cheltenham

Post by Smith2 »

OK, the first day didn't go so well. The second, I had O'Faolain's Boy in the RSA Chase, so got my money back and enough to keep playing with bookies' money for the day. For the Coral Cup, my main bet came nowhere, but I had an each-way double on Whisper (which won, and I'd taken 22/1) going onto Clarcam in the 4.40, which fell as it was taking the lead. Well, that's racing.

Today: Crowning Jewel in the Pertemps Final, and maybe something else. In the Byrne Group Plate there are, alas, three Venetia Williams runners. Now in 2009 she also had three runners, but as she'd had the winner of the Pertemps final as well, which I backed, I decided to sit this race out. Two of them took first and second place, a nice forecast, and they weren't in the expected order. This year you can get 20/1 in places about Shangani, with first (but rather unlucky in this race) jockey Aidan Coleman up; mostly 16/1 about Carrickboy (which won last year at 50/1, but is inconsistent), and 25/1 about Bennys Mist, with Paul Carberry riding for Williams for the first time, at least as far as I remember. I can't rule any of them out, so shall have to back them all one way or another.
Timbo287
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Re: Cheltenham

Post by Timbo287 »

After 2 days I'm about 100pts in profit. I've been lucky though as the system bets gave me a good champions day. First time headgear throwing up western warhorse and Jezki for a 450/1 double. Also had 1 point ew on present view at 10/1.

Balthazar king justified my 5pt max bet at average odds of 6/1 was hoping to get on in running as well but the market didn't move much. I had 1 pt ew on hawk high at 50/1 after speaking to a connection at Tim easterby's stable. Also had a point win on Somersby without the fav at 10/1

Still got 2 ante post L15's sat with two winners one will be wrapped up today as the two legs on one are the JLT and the world hurdle the other is the Kim muir and the Triumph. The Kim muir is the stumbling block for the second L15 but we'll see

Today's L15
1.30 Felix younger 7/2 generally
2.05 if in doubt 7/1 generally
2.40 dynaste 7/2 generally (or substitute with Al Ferof at 9/2 generally)
320 Annie power 6/4 generally
Last edited by Timbo287 on Thu 13th Mar 2014 08:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Smith2
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Re: Cheltenham

Post by Smith2 »

Timbo287 wrote: I had 1 pt ew on hawk high at 50/1 after speaking to a connection at Tim easterby's stable.
You could have said something. Though I seem to have the same problem with Tim Easterby's horses as you do with Venetia Williams.

I'm dithering about Crowning Jewel now. No Cheltenham form, and that's always worrying. And the jockey has a crap record at the course. Basically, I like If In Doubt, but I'm looking for a bigger price for e/w value. Josies Orders, or even Cross Kennon?
Timbo287
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Re: Cheltenham

Post by Timbo287 »

Josie's orders was selected by Pricewise so best get on at half 8 with Hills so you can get some of the 16/1 or corals for the 20's before it goes. Pineau de re has some each way appeal at 25/1 with 365 who are paying 5 places also pateese at 33/1 with the claimer on top makes some appeal

Tataniano in the grand annual at 50/1 with hills is a very appealing each way bet
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Smith2
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Re: Cheltenham

Post by Smith2 »

Reviving this thread for the Aintree meeting, where I hope to repair some of the Cheltenham damage.

2.00 pm: I had the winnings from a 22/1 shot going onto Clarcam as the second leg of a Cheltenham double, and he was leading when he fell. The jockey broke his leg and will be out for months, so I can't really moan very much, but the horse had been a model of consistency up to that point. It would be appropriate if he won a race sponsored by the Injured Jockey Fund. Available at 20/1 at Coral. Baradari ran best of Venetia Williams' horses at the festival, and is a few pounds better off with the winner, so perhaps a small bet at 33/1 – some bookies are as low as 16/1. Hawk High would be interesting, but the price has been dropping.

3.40 pm: Cool Friend looks overpriced at 25/1, but Victor Chandler isn't one of the bookies offering 4 places on this race. The same applies at the moment to Pentiffic. Might watch the market.

4.15 pm: I prefer Last Shot to Dare Me in the age-old 'which VW horse?' dilemma: it's 33/1 at Coral, less than half that elsewhere. Kings Grey and Bullet Shot are other outsiders who might be worth including in an each-way Lucky 15.

5.25 pm: Crowning Jewel tempts me – well, the 40/1 in a few places tempts me, to be honest. At shorter prices, Carole's Destrier looks a possible candidate for a multiple bet at 14/1, not so much at 9/1. Similarly with Doctor Harper or Spirit of Shankly.

Should be a great day's racing, at all events.
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Smith2
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Re: Cheltenham

Post by Smith2 »

Hope springs eternal:

14.00 Irish Cavalier

15.05 Toner d'Oudaires

15.40 You Must Know Me

16.16 The Last Samuri

Come on, betting gods, I'd like a bit of extra spending money for my next trip to Mokum.
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Smith2
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Re: Cheltenham

Post by Smith2 »

Perhaps I should have started a dedicated Grand National thread. On the other hand, I might as well keep my losers to myself. Well, it's the big one today.

Today didn't start all that well when I backed Teaforthree hastily with Hills, as they were offering 12/1, bigger than the other bookies, and I was sure that the price would drop. Not only did that mean I missed Ladbrokes' 15-minute windows where they were going 16/1 the field, but the price has drifted out with most bookmakers, including the ones paying out on five or six places each way.

Amongst the bigger-priced horses, I'm leaning towards Chance du Roy, but there are others like Lion Na Bearnai and Last Time D'Albain that catch the eye.

At least you now know what not to back.
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